Regional Public Views & Great Power Competition Amid Escalating Conflict
Key Findings from Arab BarometerWave IX
• Erosion of Western legitimacy: MENA publics increasingly view the United States and key European allies as one-sided and selectively committed to international law, contributing to a broader loss of credibility.
• Rising acceptance of alternative powers: China, Russia, and Iran are gaining ground in perceived legitimacy, though MENA publics are not uniformly supportive. Concerns remain about Iran’s regional role and nuclear ambitions, while Russia and China do not command universal admiration.
• Gaza as the defining lens: The war in Gaza continues to shape political judgments across the region. Many Arab citizens rank Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories and actions in Gaza as a more urgent threat than Iran; this shapes how external actors are judged and reinforces low ratings of Western actors that are aligned with Israel.
• Crisis of credibility on core principles: Across key measures, including upholding international law, protecting rights and freedoms, contributing to regional security, and advancing the Palestinian cause, Western policies are widely seen as falling short. This perceived inconsistency is driving a broader loss of legitimacy and has accelerated a shift in political credibility.
• Conditional normalization and pathways to engagement: Support for normalization with Israel remains low across the region but increases significantly if tied to the recognition of the State of Palestine. At the same time, MENA citizens show sustained backing for a two-state solution and overwhelming support for reconstruction efforts in Gaza, highlighting conditional openness to engagement anchored in Palestinian statehood and post-war recovery.
• Policy choices matter: The case of France, where favorability has rebounded following its official recognition of the State of Palestine, illustrates how even largely symbolic, principle-based policy shifts can meaningfully improve public perceptions and help restore credibility.
• Shifting perceptions driven by policy choices: With public confidence in Western actors deeply eroded, rebuilding legitimacy will require credible shifts in policy toward the region, alongside consistent alignment with core principles such as international law, freedoms, and security.
📊 Explore the presentation for detailed survey findings and country-level data on regional public views of security, alignments, and global powers.
