“Egyptians are voting in presidential elections on March 26-28. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who grabbed power in 2013, is set to win another term by a landslide. Yet this is far from a sign of strength: opposition candidates have been silenced, and even pro-government media are being purged of the slightest undertone of dissent. Al-Sisi’s grip on power may appear firm,…
Arab Barometer
The Officers’ Republic: The Egyptian Military and the Abuse of Power
In the run up to the 2011 uprisings, Egypt was facing significant challenges caused by corruption. From the poverty-stricken villages of Upper Egypt to the streets of Cairo, people were deeply frustrated. Hosni Mubarak’s government was widely perceived as kleptocratic, with state structures directed towards the enrichment of the few at the expense of the many. As public investment fell,…
Survey Research in the Arab World: Challenges and Opportunities
Survey research has expanded in the Arab world since the 1980s. The Arab Spring marked a watershed when surveying became possible in Tunisia and Libya, and researchers added additional questions needed to answer theoretical and policy questions. Almost every Arab country now is included in the Arab Barometer or World Values Survey. Yet, some scholars express the view that the…
The False Assumptions Fueling America’s Endless War
….Terror Recruitment Fueled by U.S. Military Strikes As part of the war on terror, America has conducted military operations in at least eight Muslim-majority countries: Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Somalia, and Niger. Polling clearly shows the use of U.S. military force has inflamed grievances among Muslims. A survey of 11 Muslim-majority populations, for example, found that more respondents…
Borrowing Time: Rents and Reform in Saudi Arabia
One of the most ambitious, well-defined reform plans in the region for reigning in state obligations to citizens while boosting private-sector development is Saudi Vision 2030, a program of economic and social (but not political) change headlined by the Kingdom’s much-profiled Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman. While the Kingdom does not presently face the breakdown in public order or empty…
How Concerned Are You About Growing Sectarian Divisions?
For international security, the year 2017 was marked – among others – by signs of a continued erosion of the so-called liberal international order and an increasingly unpredictable US foreign policy. Tensions in many parts of the world have been growing: the rhetoric between the US and North Korea has escalated, the rift in the Gulf has become deeper, not…
Who Benefits from Consociationalism? Religious Disparities in Lebanon’s Political System
This study examines the extent to which confessional identities in Lebanon are responsible for shaping individual views toward their government. Specifically, I investigate disparities between religious groups in their perceptions of democracy and democratic principles as applied in Lebanon. Using nationally representative data from the Arab Barometer’s survey of Lebanon, I find that when compared to Maronite Catholics, Druze, and…
Popular Support for Democracy in Autocratic Regimes: A Micro-Level Analysis of Preferences
Scholarly opinions diverge as to which citizens in autocratic regimes actually prefer democracy to the status quo. While some argue that citizens with higher levels of socioeconomic status are more likely to prefer democracy because they desire political equality, others argue that the poor should prefer democracy most because they will have more relative power to affect redistributive policies. Analyzing…
Surveys and Countering Violent Extremism
The intent of this practitioner guide is to better acquaint development practitioners with the use of surveys in preventing or countering violent extremism (CVE). Surveys are an excellent way to gather systematic data about violent extremism, as well as the behaviors and attitudes of the general public or important segments of the population such as victims, potential perpetrators, and even…
Advances in Survey Methods for the Developing World
Political scientists are fielding more and more surveys in the developing world. Yet, most survey research methodology derives from experiences in developed countries. Researchers working in the developing world often confront very different challenges to collecting high-quality data. Census data may be unreliable or outdated, enumerators may shirk, political topics may be sensitive, and respondents may be unaccustomed to and…
Scaling-up the Inclusive Growth Agenda in the Arab Region
… 1. The Region Needs Inclusive Growth Now More Than Ever Since our last conference in Amman in 2014, countries in the region have placed job creation and inclusive growth at the heart of their reform agendas. There has been progress – though not enough. Many are clearly struggling with “how” to scale up reform implementation, and turn these priorities…
A Marrakech, Christine Lagarde plaide pour “plus d’infrastructures, plus de dépenses sociales…”
…Selon une note du FMI sur le sujet, « les citoyens de la région s’inquiètent du fait que les opportunités et l’accès aux services publics ne sont pas les mêmes pour tous. D’après l’enquête Arab Barometer, 70 % des citoyens estiment que les efforts gouvernementaux pour réduire l’écart entre les riches et les pauvres sont peu, voire très peu, efficaces…