Arab Democracy Barometer Project: The First and Proposed Second Wave

The First Wave

In its first phase, the project carried out nationally representative Democracy Barometer surveys in Morocco, Algeria, Kuwait, Palestine (West Bank and Gaza), and Jordon.  It will soon conduct a Democracy Barometer survey in Egypt as well.  Reports and papers based on these surveys will be posted on the Arab Barometer website, which is presently under construction.

The Arab Barometer is also currently organizing dialogue and dissemination activities with both government and general audiences in the Middle East and the United States. These activities include briefings, press conferences, and academic, media and public presentations. 

The Second Wave

In the second phase of the project, for which we are now approaching potential funding partners, Democracy Barometer surveys will be carried out in at least five and probably six additional countries, most likely Yemen, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Lebanon, and Iraq.  Members of the Arab Barometer team have already worked on surveys with scholars in each of these countries.  With sufficient resources, the project will also replicate the Democracy Barometer surveys carried out during the first wave, thereby providing data for longitudinal as well as cross-national analyses.  The Arab Barometer is working in close collaboration with the Arab Reform Initiative in order to increase the scope of both its data collection and its dialogue and dissemination activities (See the Arab Reform Initiative website:  http://www.arab-reform.net )  

Arab Barometer Project

Mark Tessler (University of Michigan) Principal Investigator

 (tessler@umich.edu )

Amaney Jamal (Princeton University) Co-Principal Investigator

 (ajamal@princeton.edu )

Country Team Leaders and Steering Committee Members

Fares Braizat (Jordan)

Ghanim al-Najjar (Kuwait)

Abdallah Bedaida (Algeria)

Mhammed Abderebbi (Morocco)

Khalil Shakaki (Palestine)

Gamal Soltan (Egypt)

The second phase of the project also seeks to institutionalize the Arab Democracy Barometer by creating an administrative home at one or more academic institutions in the Arab world.  These institutional bases will coordinate future surveys, capacity-building programs, and dissemination activities, thereby ensuring continuation of the project and increasing its impact.  The Center for Strategic Studies of the University of Jordan will be one of these administrative homes.

Importance of the Project

There has long been dearth of systematic and rigorous empirical research on public opinion in the Arab world.  The recent expansion of political attitude research in Jordan and Palestine is a notable exception.  More generally, however, far too little is known about the nature, distribution, and determinants of the political orientations of ordinary Arab citizens.

Information about the political attitudes and values of Arab men and women is important for scientific inquiry, for the promotion of democracy, and to dispel the myths and stereotypes that hinder mutual understanding and cooperation.  More specifically, the absence of this information has contributed to three kinds of deficiencies.  First, there has been little opportunity for the views of ordinary citizens about governance to play a role in the promotion of democracy.  Second, there has been little scientific information with which to examine the conventional wisdom about the so-called “Arab Street,” particularly in Western societies.  Third, the experience of the Arab world has made no more than a minor contribution to scholarly research that seeks to develop theoretical insights about citizen attitudes and behavior that are applicable across countries and world regions.

The first wave of the Arab Barometer Project has already begun to address these concerns.  It has enabled us to identify prevailing trends in the Arab world and make preliminary comparisons with other world regions.  It has also produced data for outreach and dissemination activities that seek to increase the prospects for successful democratic transitions.  To realize its potential, however, it is essential that there be one or more additional waves of surveys and associated activities. 

Survey Topics

Borrowing from the interview schedule used in other Democracy Barometer surveys, the Arab Barometer team designed a survey instrument that allows Arab public opinion to be compared to public opinion in other world regions.  In addition, however, paying close attention to the nuances and particularities of the Arab world, the Arab Barometer team also included many items dealing with the specific experience, culture, religion, and political climate of the Arab world.  Prominent among the attitudinal and behavioral dimensions explored are the following:

• Support for democratic institutions;

• Evaluation of democracy in relation to other models of governance, including Islamist and Arab nationalist;

• Levels and forms of political and civic participation;

• Participant citizenship and dimensions of political culture, including tolerance, political trust, political interest and political efficacy;

• Perceptions of state and regime performance and legitimacy;

• Conceptions and interpretations of Islam;

• The preferred relationship between religion and politics

• Religiosity and personal involvement in religious affairs

• Attitudes toward terrorism and political violence

• Attitudes towards Middle East International relations